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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."